.
BY DR.VIKASH KUMAR GUPTA.
That the Indian market would be 3-5 times today's size is a well-accepted fact; but what it would take to get there would perhaps be known only then.
What we can see however is that the economic growth over the next 10 years hinges strongly on the outcome of the coming elections, and depending squarely on how stable and reformist the new government is.
If a government that is focused on social stability and economic growth with a long-term vision comes in, it could do wonders. However, if a government which itself is not stable comes in with a populist short-term agenda and economic profligacy gets power, then we will see a "lost decade" in all likelihood. India could go either way - the Crouching Tiger way or the Crawling Turtle way.
Let us look at both scenarios. The Crouching Tiger scenario will focus first on controlling inflation and removing bottlenecks to economic growth; while the other, the Crawling Turtle scenario, will pull us into a potential hyper-inflation scenario and a weaker sovereign balance sheet, moving very close to a debt trap.
The Crawling Turtle scenario is less likely, since if a weak and unstable government comes in then bureaucrats tend to exercise more control on the government and typically the most critical elements of the economy are not allowed to spiral out of control.
So, overall, the chances of a bleak scenario are much less even with a weak government. But then it will slow India down. However, if a strong government comes then wonders could happen. I will focus on the Crouching Tiger scenario further.
Crouching Tiger has a lot of latent energy.
India will continue to generate large amounts of savings and it will have to get invested. If the economy is allowed to move freely with fewer governmental controls, there is enough domestic capital for a very high growth rate.
India times
praveen sharma
pgdm 2ndsem.
BY DR.VIKASH KUMAR GUPTA.
That the Indian market would be 3-5 times today's size is a well-accepted fact; but what it would take to get there would perhaps be known only then.
What we can see however is that the economic growth over the next 10 years hinges strongly on the outcome of the coming elections, and depending squarely on how stable and reformist the new government is.
If a government that is focused on social stability and economic growth with a long-term vision comes in, it could do wonders. However, if a government which itself is not stable comes in with a populist short-term agenda and economic profligacy gets power, then we will see a "lost decade" in all likelihood. India could go either way - the Crouching Tiger way or the Crawling Turtle way.
Let us look at both scenarios. The Crouching Tiger scenario will focus first on controlling inflation and removing bottlenecks to economic growth; while the other, the Crawling Turtle scenario, will pull us into a potential hyper-inflation scenario and a weaker sovereign balance sheet, moving very close to a debt trap.
The Crawling Turtle scenario is less likely, since if a weak and unstable government comes in then bureaucrats tend to exercise more control on the government and typically the most critical elements of the economy are not allowed to spiral out of control.
So, overall, the chances of a bleak scenario are much less even with a weak government. But then it will slow India down. However, if a strong government comes then wonders could happen. I will focus on the Crouching Tiger scenario further.
Crouching Tiger has a lot of latent energy.
India will continue to generate large amounts of savings and it will have to get invested. If the economy is allowed to move freely with fewer governmental controls, there is enough domestic capital for a very high growth rate.
India times
praveen sharma
pgdm 2ndsem.
By: Dr Vikas Gupta
That the Indian market would be 3-5 times today's size is a well-accepted fact; but what it would take to get there would perhaps be known only then.
What we can see however is that the economic growth over the next 10 years hinges strongly on the outcome of the coming elections, and depending squarely on how stable and reformist the new government is.
If a government that is focused on social stability and economic growth with a lon ..
That the Indian market would be 3-5 times today's size is a well-accepted fact; but what it would take to get there would perhaps be known only then.
What we can see however is that the economic growth over the next 10 years hinges strongly on the outcome of the coming elections, and depending squarely on how stable and reformist the new government is.
If a government that is focused on social stability and economic growth with a lon ..
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