Singapore: Hedge fund manager Jim Rogers
has always been an India bear and a critic of the policies of the
Indian government. The chairman of Rogers Holding who moved to Singapore
in 2007 because he believes the centre of the world is moving to Asia,
lashes out in an interview at both national political parties and
dismisses Goldman Sachs’ recent report on how it was turning bullish on India because of the possibility that the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP’s) Narendra Modi
could be the country’s next prime minister. “I won’t invest in India”
till the country opens up more, said Rogers. Edited extracts:
What do you think of the whole controversy
regarding the Goldman Sachs report titled “Modi-fying our view: raise
India to Marketweight”. Do you agree with what the brokerage firm said
on change?
Firstly, India has been badly managed for the past 60
years. I am not talking about just the two main parties in India—get rid
of all the politicians. Who knows as to who is the worse between the
ruling party and the opposition. Both Congress and BJP have not been and
will not be good for India, until they completely open its economy and
catch on to how the world really works. India will continue to suffer—I
am not saying that the opposition will be better. Everybody who has had
anything to do with running India in the past so many years have failed
India.
Now, it is a different issue if Goldman Sachs be allowed
to comment. If they can’t comment, then can newspapers from outside
(India) be allowed to comment? What Indian politicians are saying if you
criticize is that you can’t comment if you are an outsider. That is one
of the problems for India, and this is why India has been a disaster
for so long. It keeps fouling up—telling anybody they cannot criticize
or comment is a terrible, terrible mistake for India. Does that mean
only Indian media can comment on what is happening there? Are
politicians trying to say you can’t comment unless you agree with what
they say? I find India’s reaction to the Goldman Sachs report ludicrous.
I’m no fan of Goldman Sachs, but India’s reaction to the report is
embarrassing. Indians should be embarrassed to have politicians who
react like that to a report.
Has the BJP said or done anything revolutionary, or said
anything different? They say we like business people better than
Congress, but can they do anything other than making some cosmetic
changes? Yes, if they (BJP) win, Goldman Sachs will be happy; they can
buy stocks and markets will go up. But a year later everyone will look
around and say that nothing has changed. It will still be impossible to
do business in India unless you are in bed with politicians and
bureaucrats. It will still be impossible for people to buy and sell
currencies the way they want to…. I can buy gold nearly anywhere in the
world, but not in India because I am foreigner. What kind of garbage is
that?
Do you expect Modi and the BJP to win the elections?
Each party is as bad as the other. Maybe on the margin,
one may be better, but Indian politicians have not shown any vision for
the last 60 years. In 1947, India started off as one of the most
successful countries, relative to everyone else in Asia. Since then,
India has declined dramatically when compared to many other countries.
Neither Congress nor BJP has done a good job. BJP is in power is some
states and they are not doing a good job either. The best run Indian
state has not done as well as the worst run Chinese state since 1980.
All parts of India have not done well under the present set of
politicians. So, I am saying, throw all existing politicians out and
find a new set from wherever or however and start all over again. India
won’t do that, but this is my view.
How do you view the market in a run up to the general elections?
They will have a rally if the BJP wins and Goldman Sachs
will then buy Indian shares. But I don’t see this rally last. Yes, even
if the markets continue to go up, inflation is terrible, so the value of
real money continues to decline. Indian markets will go up, but this is
based on artificial printing of money. I will say again, in my view, if
India threw out the whole lot of its politicians and brought in leaders
who understood the world, then investors will be very excited about
investing in India.
Other than on a short-term trading (basis), for the
markets, it does not matter who wins India’s election. I see no leader
in India on the horizon and who can come in and do the reforms, make it
easier to do business in India and get rid of restrictions in several
sectors.
You mean, India should bring in technocrats?
What about India’s new central bank governor? He is the former chief
economist at the International Monetary Fund.
The fact is he (Raghuram Rajan)
is from the US. The US has been doing as bad a job as the Indian
government; it is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world.
They are printing more money than anyone else. That cannot be the role
model by any stretch of imagination. They are part of the problem. The
problem with India too is that debt is keeping on going higher as well
as the inflation. Whether, he (Rajan) will do better, I don’t know.
Needless to say, what he said he will do, and what he will really do
will rarely be the same. I can’t think of technocrats who have done a
great job. The Chinese tried technocrats and they did not do anything
different. The problems with technocrats is that they face the same set
of problems that politicians face. I am not suggesting it, but if you
can give someone the power to make changes, and that person makes the
right changes. China’s Deng Xiaoping had the power and he made the right changes when he opened up their economy after the country faced 300 years of decline. Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore had enough power and he made the right changes.
But India is a democracy.
I did not say that (you need a dictator). What I am
saying is that if a guy has enough power to make the right changes,
especially if he is elected. Democracy is the best form of governance we
have, it is the best thing that the world has conceived, but democracy
is just less bad than other forms of governance. What India needs, or
what everyone needs is a leader with enough power and vision to do the
right things and get them done. India needs to be changed dramatically
like Deng Xiaoping changed China.onika jaiswal
pgdm 1st year
2013-15
source toi
No comments:
Post a Comment