Can BJP now win over potential partners?

New Delhi: Bouyed by Sunday’s wins in four key state polls, the main opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will be looking for coalition partners to mount a serious challenge to wrest power from the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance in the national polls due next year, a party leader and analysts said.

The BJP scored victories in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, and emerged as the single largest party in Delhi in polls that were being seen as a litmus test for the ruling Congress and the BJP ahead of the 2014 national polls.

“The 4-0 victory will help us negotiate with our current partners and new possible partners from a position of strength,” a BJP leader said condition of anonymity.

“To win a majority in the parliamentary elections, it (BJP) will have to look at alliances, especially in states like Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu,” said Subrata Mukherjee, a retired political science professor from Delhi University. To come to national power, a political party or coalition needs to secure 272 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha.

Mukherjee’s opinion was echoed by political analyst N. Bhaskara Rao, who said that besides Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, the BJP would also have to look at forging alliances in states like Maharashtra and West Bengal.

The first time the BJP formed a national government in Delhi, it lasted 13 days. It could not persuade political parties to form a coalition with it, given the party’s espousal of a Hindu nationalist ideology. This was in 1996, almost four years after the demolition of the 16th century Babri mosque in Ayodhya. Hindu activists who tore down the mosque were seen being urged on by some BJP political leaders. Two years later, the BJP came back to power nationally as the head of a 13-party coalition—the National Democratic Alliance (NDA)—but stayed in office for only 13 months before it was ousted by one vote in a confidence motion in Parliament. After another general election in 1999, the NDA came to power at the head of a more stable 24-party coalition and the government lasted its full five-year term that ended in 2004.

With general elections expected in April-May, the BJP does seem to have the ability to attract allies after Sunday’s poll results, said Mukherjee.

The NDA, as it exists today, consists the BJP and the regional Shiv Sena, which draws its support from Maharashtra, and the Shiromani Akali Dal, which has support in Punjab, besides some smaller groups. The regional Biju Janata Dal walked out of the coalition in 2009 amid a disagreement over seat-sharing in assembly polls, and earlier this year, the Janata Dal (United), or JD(U), left the NDA after the BJP announced it was elevating controversial Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi as the head of the BJP’s chief election campaigner. The JD(U) viewed it as a precursor to the BJP naming Modi as the prime ministerial candidate. Modi, seen as pro-business and an efficient administrator, is targeted by so-called secular parties for failing to quell quickly enough the Hindu-Muslim riots that erupted in Gujarat in 2002 after the burning of a train carriage left 59 Hindu pilgrims dead in the town of Godhra. Some 2000 people—mostly Muslims—were killed in the ensuing riots. Modi denies any wrongdoing.

“The JD(U) has already walked out of the alliance with the BJP because of important ideological reasons,” party leader Sharad Yadav said, an indication that chances of a rapprochement are far-fetched.

Bhartruhari Mahtab, a Biju Janata Dal parliamentarian, said his party would maintain equal distance from the BJP and the Congress. “We don’t think that elections in the five states is a semi-final before the general elections, which is quite different,” Mahtab said. “A third alternative is our best option for which we are striving.”

Much depended on how the Congress party managed to project itself to its allies, according to Balveer Arora, who headed the political science department at the Jawaharlal Nehru University.

Given that the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate was a controversial figure and there were a few months to go before the national polls, “if the Congress comes up with a clear plan of action that appeals to its current and also potential allies”, it could steal a march over the BJP, he said.

The beleaguered United Progressive Alliance (UPA), tarnished by allegations of corruption, is currently a minority government. Weighing it down further has been high inflation, slow economic growth and an impression of policy paralysis. In 2009, when the UPA won a second term in office, there were a number of parties vying to be part of the coalition. At present, however, the Congress’ allies include the Nationalist Congress Party with a support base in Maharashtra and the National Conference, which heads the government in Jammu and Kashmir, besides some smaller parties. The regional Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, which has its base in Tamil Nadu, offers issue-based support to the coalition, as do the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party, both from Uttar Pradesh. Given Sunday’s results, the Congress would be worried about keeping its flock together, Arora said.

“Today, there is a pool of what I can call coalitionable parties who are willing to offer issue based support and the BJP and Congress are anxious to draw on them. The BJP needs such parties more because it’s essentially a Hindu belt party while as far as the Congress is concerned, it’s weakened in states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar,” Arora explained. “The smaller parties will join whichever group they think has a winning formula.”

The Congress may have the edge in attracting coalition partners, said Gnani Sankaran, political commentator from Tamil Nadu.

“Modi does not have an image of secularism, which is why it is difficult to anticipate BJP garnering 180 or more seats in exit polls,” Sankaran said. “Modi is likely to polarise votes for BJP as minorities will not vote for him.”

Bidyut Chakravarty, a professor of political science from Delhi University, is of the opinion that post-poll alliances were more probable than pre-poll alliances in the current political situation. But he listed Tamil Nadu chief minister J. Jayalalithaa’s All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) and the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) from Andha Pradesh, besides former Karnataka chief minister B.S. Yeddyurappa’s Karnataka Janata Party (KJP) as possible groups that could join the BJP-led fold before the 2014 national elections. Jayalalithaa has kept a door open to the BJP by sharing the political stage on many occasions with Modi. The TDP extended outside support to the NDA when it was in power between 1998-2004 and Yeddyurappa had the distinction of heading the BJP’s first state government in southern India before parting ways with the BJP.

Leaders of the AIADMK and the TDP declined to comment but K. Dhananjay Kumar, political advisor to Yeddyurappa, signalled his party’s willingness to join a BJP-led political combine. Yeddyurappa is willing to support Modi. The BJP has so far not spoken to Yeddyurappa to join the party. We are not against joining NDA but it will depend on how Yeddyurappa is invited in the alliance,” he said.

According to Chakravarty, West Bengal’s Trinamool Congress (TMC) could join the NDA after elections in 2014, although Saugata Ray, a TMC member of Parliament, said party chief and West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee was seeking equidistance from both the BJP and the Congress. “However, nothing can be ruled out in politics,” he said.

Mint’s Gyan Varma, Asit Ranjan Mishra, S.Bridget Leena and Romita Datta contributed to this story.

“The 4-0 victory will help us negotiate with our current partners and new possible partners from a position of strength,” a BJP leader said condition of anonymity.

With general elections expected in April-May, the BJP does seem to have the ability to attract allies after Sunday’s poll results, said Mukherjee.

Much depended on how the Congress party managed to project itself to its allies, according to Balveer Arora, who headed the political science department at the Jawaharlal Nehru University.

The Congress may have the edge in attracting coalition partners, said Gnani Sankaran, political commentator from Tamil Nadu.

TDP extended outside support to the NDA when it was in power between 1998-2004 and Yeddyurappa had the distinction of heading the BJP’s first state government in southern India before parting ways with the BJP.